JULY 28, 2026 I NEED A BETTER CRYSTAL BALL

July 28, 2026

I NEED A BETTER CRYSTAL BALL

There were predictions for strong breeze for the evening but my first view of the flags at the harbor showed a weak Easterly early in the afternoon.  The strong winds were further out in the bay.  As we left the harbor at 5pm, the westerly wind was coming all the way into the start mark area.  As the clock ticked down, the Easterly was just beginning to form.  We blew the 15 minute horn at 5:45 and proceeded with the normal start time.  Assuming the Easterly would fill in, we called for course E3.

 The poor spinnaker fleet started the race in a very light Easterly. As the Easterly strengthened, the fleets were compressed together.  As we rounded Blacks in Fleet B, the wind seemed to be dying even more so we shortened course to finish at Gov for all three fleets.  Rather than having everyone bobbing in no wind, it would be better to be at the BBQ!  As we round GOV a beautiful Easterly filled in with 10 knots of wind to sail back to the finish.  Once again, shortening the course was not the right decision. I need a better crystal ball.

Spinny tracks can be seen at:

https://www.regattahero.com/mapviewer/?organisation=scyc&passcode=233793&regatta=Tues%20Spinny%20Fleet&race=28.7.2026%2017:50:00&language=en

Fleet A tracks can be reviewed at:

https://www.regattahero.com/mapviewer/?organisation=scyc&passcode=233793&regatta=Tues%20Fleet%20A&race=28.7.2026%2017:55:00&language=en

B Fleet track:

https://www.regattahero.com/mapviewer/?organisation=scyc&passcode=233793&regatta=Tues%20Fleet%20B&race=28.7.2026%2018:00:00&language=en

 

PHRF adjusted results: Course E3   Shortened course distance 1.84nm

PLACE                BOAT                                 PHRF                  ET                         CORRECTED

SPINNY FLEET:

1            INTERLUDE                                   141                      46:19                  41:59

2            ICHIBAN                                         150                      48:16                  43:40

3            GONZO                                            150                      48:20                  43:44

FLEET A:

1            WATTS MOORE                             150                      43:10                  38:34

2            ABORIGINAL                                 33                         41:40                  40:39

3            MAIN SQUEEZE                            72                         46:12                  43:59

4            PERFECT 36                                   144                      51:23                  46:58

5            RIO                                                  141                      53:46                  49:26

FLEET B:

1            YES DEAR                                       243                      50:58                  43:30

2            SIMPATICO                                     165                      48:60                  43:56

3            SAILING PAIR A DICE                  180                      49:57                  44:25

4            NIDAROS                                        118                      48:05                  44:28

5            ABSOLUTE 05                                117                      48:59                  45:23

6            PACIFIC SPIRIT                             165                      51:43                  46:39

7            KICKS                                             180                      53:14                  47:42

8            TOAD                                              150                      52:26                  47:50

ZOOP SCOOP by Paul Tara

QUIZ

Last Week:

Barometric pressure measures:

c) the weight of the atmosphere 

Air molecules have weight. Standard barometric pressure (1 atmosphere) at sea level is around 14.7 PSI.

 

This Week:

 Isobars are like contour lines on a topographic map; air molecules seek to equalize pressure by:

a) staying put

b) flowing downhill to lower pressure

c) flowing uphill to higher pressure

 

THE RACE

Zoop did not sail.  I watched the race in real time on the app. Pretty cool — a lot more entertaining than staring at jib telltales would have been in that breeze.  The story of the evening was the big shift to the right, which caught many headed left initially.  But in A, Main Squeeze clearly had a plan. She started on port behind the fleet, and headed out to the right, rounding  BP ahead of both Aboriginal and her mascot, Watts Moore.  Her plan apparently did not extend to the run however, where she jibed out on port initially, then over-stood the layline to the red ball.  Her lead slipped away as Aboriginal and Watts Moore slid by on the inside, sailing a better angle. 

 

As a general rule of thumb, the strategic factors that result in good upwind legs, are not beneficial downwind, i.e., whichever side of the course is favored upwind, the opposite side is usually favored downwind. Upwind, foot into the shift (header) then tack on it.  Downwind, sail away from the shift, then jibe into it. If in doubt, stay close to the most direct course.

 

In B Fleet the plot was similar, but with some twists. Absolute started on port, went right, and rounded first, but appeared to also over-stand the red ball, allowing Nidaros and the pack to gain.  Then, after passing the red ball, she made a very strange maneuver, which ended up with her doing a 360 — no clue (possible foul exoneration?). This allowed Nidaros to take the lead.  But the Gold Star in B belongs to the Santana 22 Yes Dear.  They ran out of runway and were OCS at the port end, jibed around, restarted on port behind the fleet and followed Absolute out to the right. They rounded BP third, close astern of Nidaros.  On the run, they stuck to the straight and narrow, finishing with the overall shortest distance sailed by quite a bit.  Now, if they could just please edit their RH registration info and enter the correct PHRF?  I believe S-22’s rate slightly slower than 100. (fixed!)

 

Thank you Paul!

I hope to see you sailing next Tuesday!

Barry Keeler

Sailing  Pair A Dice 

JULY 21, 2026 SURPRISING WIND

 

JULY 21, 2026

SURPRISING WIND

It is amazing living with the technology we have and the wind predictions for Predict-wind. Once again predictions for the evening were 4-10 knots and the flags were off and on through the afternoon.  When we left the harbor at 5pm, there was not much wind close to the beach but 8-9 knots close to the mooring ball.  With the intense heat we have been dealing with, you would think an Easterly would develop but no fog going into Capitola confirmed (in my mind) that no Easterly would form.  I thought we would certainly be dealing with a dying breeze through the afternoon, but called for course W4 again: Start>Schuyler>Mile>SF.  The thought was that we could shorten course if the wind started dying.

As it turned out, the wind filled in and as we approached Schuyler, I saw 20 knots of apparent wind.  All boats finished in what turned out to be a SURPRISING WIND.

spectacular cloud formations

                       ***********************************************************************************

NEXT TUESDAY WILL BE THE LAST TUESDAY OF THE MONTH WHICH IS BARBECUE POTLUCK NIGHT AT THE CLUB. BRING YOUR BEST GRILLING FOOD TO ENJOY AND SHARE!

Spinnaker fleet track can be reviewed at:

https://www.regattahero.com/mapviewer/?organisation=scyc&passcode=233793&regatta=Tues%20Spinny%20Fleet&race=21.7.2026%2017:50:00&language=en

Fleet A Track at:

https://www.regattahero.com/mapviewer/?organisation=scyc&passcode=233793&regatta=Tues%20Fleet%20A&race=21.7.2026%2017:55:00&language=en

Fleet B:

https://www.regattahero.com/mapviewer/?organisation=scyc&passcode=233793&regatta=Tues%20Fleet%20B&race=21.7.2026%2018:00:00&language=en

 

PHRF ADJUSTED RESULTS:

PLACE                BOAT                                 PHRF                  ET                         CORRECTED TIME

SPINNY FLEET: COURSE W4  DISTANCE  2.920NM

1            PEGASUS                                       150                      38:03                  30:45

2            GONZO                                           150                      38:36                  31:38

3            DOUBLE ESPRESSO                    99                         40:05                  35;16

A FLEET:  COURSE W4  DISTANCE 2.920NM

1            ABORIGINAL                                 33                      33:29                  31:53  

2            SAGITTARIUS                               120                      38:11                  32:21

3            PAC HIGH                                       96                         37:18                  32:38

4            MAIN SQUEEZE                            72                         36:23                  32:53

5            PERFECT 36                                   144                      40:46                  33:46

6            WATTS MOORE                             150                      41:35                  34:17

7            ZOOP                                              14441:27                  34:27

8            WIND II                                         213                      52:08                  41:46

B FLEET:  COURSE W4  DISTANCE 2.920NM

1            GOLD RUSH                                 126                      37:53                  31:45

 2            SIMPATICO                                   165                      43:54                  35:52

3           ABSOLUTE 05                              117                      41:35                  35:53

4            NIDAROS                                      118                      42:24                  36:39

5            PACIFIC SPIRIT                            165                      45:43                  37:41

6            SAILING PAIR A DICE                180                      46:48                  38:02

7            YES DEAR                                    243                      50:24                  38:34

8            AZOR                                             243                      52:10                  40:20

9          TOAD                                             150                      50:12                  42:54

10        BLOND AMBITION                     100                      51:10                  46:18  

 

ZOOP SCOOP by Paul Tara

QUIZZ

Last Week,

A monsoon is:

b) a seasonal wind shift resulting in precipitation.

 

This week,

Barometric pressure measures:

a) lobbying for weather research

b) the force of the wind

c) the weight of the atmosphere

 

“IT’S CLOUD ILLUSIONS I RECALL…”

The amazing wraithlike clouds on Tuesday were not created by somebody in Davenport opening The Ark of the Covenant, like in the Spielberg movie.  They were caused by the uneven mixing of moist southwesterly (counter clockwise) flow around the eastern edge of the remnants of tropical storm (formerly hurricane) Elida with colder air below. This pattern erased any possibility of eddy formation (Monterey/Moss Landing was clear and distinct). Right on the heels of the clouds, the fog rolled in from the west.   Elida was also responsible for the large sets at the Harbor mouth.  Hopefully, someone snapped a picture of the clouds that Barry can include in the blog. I, for one, have never seen anything like them here in Santa Cruz. But, I expect to see more, as ocean temps continue to rise. ”…I really don’t know clouds at all.”   Joni Mitchell.

 

THE RACE

In A Fleet, our start sucked (I think I need a testosterone boost). Our race was over 2 minutes before the start, as I hesitated on our approach tack.  After the start we elected to tack away onto port ASAP which made us the most inshore boat. Needless to say, steering was very difficult for everyone, due to the large swell rolling through.  But for us, it was next to impossible to stay in the groove, as the swell increasingly felt the bottom. We should have gotten out of there much sooner. From the cheap seats it looked as though Aboriginal just sailed away (again), but Sagittarius and Main Squeeze hit some good shifts near Schuyler to stay within striking distance.  But then came the two reaches. Aboriginal’s most vulnerable point of sail is downwind in light to moderate air. Give her two reaches and she’s gone. And so, she went.

 

In the B Fleet, the strange clouds seem to have induced a Close Encounter Effect. According to RH, about halfway up the beat, Nidarous made a radical tack and bear-away onto port. So radical that I can only ascribe it to the presence of a boat that’s not on the app.  Either that, or a whale breached dead ahead and the tiller extension got stuck somewhere it shouldn’t have. Then, while clearly leading, she copied our favorite move and over-stood Schuyler by enough to allow Rio and Absolute 05 to round ahead.   All three vied for the lead until halfway down the second reach, when Gold Rush suddenly popped up out of nowhere way ahead,  only to fail to record a finish. Back in the pack, Absolute 05 broke away to leeward of Nidarous and Rio, which allowed her to reach up in the lighter air near the finish. This paid off,  but not enough to correct out over Simpatico, which cruised serenely down the rhumb line.  All this is way above my pay grade. Barry will have to sort out who actually won.

 

Thank you Paul!

 

Barry Keeler

Sailing Pair A Dice

                             

JULY 14, 2026 SAVING THE BEST FOR LAST

 

JULY 14, 2026

SAVING THE BEST FOR LAST

As I arrived at the harbor early in the afternoon, there was a brisk breeze showing on the flags.  Reports from sailors confirmed there was plenty of wind out there.  Predict wind was calling for the 5 o’clock winds to be 8 knots decreasing to 4 knots through the evening.  As warm as it was, I was expecting an Easterly despite the lack of fog drifting into Capitola.  When we left the harbor at 5 o’clock there was a steady 12 knot wind out at the start mark which seemed to follow the prediction as the wind quickly started decreasing.  In anticipation of a 4 knot breeze, we went about halfway to Schuyler and set a windward mark.  After setting the mark and heading back to the start area, we quickly realized that there was a building Easterly and changed the course to E3.  This was our third and final course change for the evening. All three fleets got off to clean starts and all was fine until B Fleet started the downwind run to GOV and the wind started dying again.  In an attempt to prevent another “BOBB-fest”, we shortened course for Fleet A and B to finish at GOV.  As we rounded GOV, the wind came back and, even though the race was finished, most boats continued to sail back to finish at the start mark.  It seems like the wind gods were SAVING THE BEST FOR LAST.

AFTER THE RACE…

Since my boat is the committee boat, we need to set and retrieve our temporary mark(s).  This is not a big deal, but it is a delay which frequently results in my boat being the last coming into the harbor.  Before the race we need to set and ping each temp mark we deploy.  Please be aware of these tasks that we must do to have a race.  Frequently we have boats on starboard (normally having right of way) crowding us both before and after the race as we need to set and retrieve the marks.  Please give us leeway as we are conducting these essential functions.

 

The track for spinny Fleet can be seen at:

https://www.regattahero.com/mapviewer/?organisation=scyc&passcode=233793&regatta=Tues%20Spinny%20Fleet&race=14.7.2026%2017:50:00&language=en

 

A Fleet can be viewed at:

https://www.regattahero.com/mapviewer/?organisation=scyc&passcode=233793&regatta=Tues%20Fleet%20A&race=14.7.2026%2017:55:00&language=en

B Fleet track at:

https://www.regattahero.com/mapviewer/?organisation=scyc&passcode=233793&regatta=Tues%20Fleet%20B&race=14.7.2026%2018:00:00&language=en 2

 

PHRF ADJUSTED RESULTS:

PLACE                BOAT                                 PHRF                  ET                         CORRECTED

SPINNY FLEET: COURSE E3    DISTANCE 2.715NM

1            PEGASUS                                       150                      43:37                  36:50

2            INTERLUDE                                   141                      47:26                  41:03

3            SOPHIE                                           141                      49:13                  42:50  

4            DOUBLE ESPRESSO                    99                         48:35                  44:06

5            KEMOSABE                                   81                         56:35                  52:55

FLEET A:  COURSE E3 SHORTENED TO FINISH AT GOV  DISTANCE 1.905NM

1            WATTS MOORE                           150                      28:11                  23:25

2            ZOOP                                              144                      29:58                  25:24

3            ABORIGINAL                                33                         27:21                  26:18

4            SAGITARIUS                                 120                      30:46                  26:57

5            WIND II                                          213                      33:48                  27:02

6            PERFECT 36                                  144                      32:07                  27:33

7            MAIN SQUEEZE                           72                         32:16                  29:59

8            ROSIE                                             162                      36:14                  31:05

FLEET B: COURSE E3 SHORTENED TO FINISH AT GOV DISTANCE 1.905NM

1            BIG MAC                                         222                      31:45                  24:42

2            AZOR                                               243                      35:21                  27:38

3            NIDAROS                                        118                      31:40                  28:14

4            AVATAR                                           132                      32:26                  28:15

5            SIMPATICO                                     165                      33:41                  28:27

6            YES DEAR                                       243                      37:23                  29:40

7             KICKS                                              180                      35:31                 29:54  

8            ABSOLUTE 05                                 117                      33:38                  29:55

9            SAILING PAIR A DICE                   180                      37:46                  32:03

10            PACIFIC SPIRIT                            165                      38:19                  33:05

11          TOAD                                               150                      38:19                  33:33

12          BLOND AMBITION                       100                      42:48                  39:37

13          CIELITO                                          360                      54:00                  42:34

 ZOOP SCOOP BY PAUL TARA

QUIZ

Last Week,

An isobar is:

b) A new SCYC Open Bar Policy! JUST KIDDING, it’s really

c) A line of equal barometric pressure. (On weather maps isobars serve the same function as elevation contours on topographic maps; the closer they are — the steeper the slope (pressure gradient) — the greater the true wind.

 

This Week,

A monsoon is:

a) an unwelcome start to the work week

b) a seasonal wind shift resulting in precipitation

c) a sprits’l used in southeast Asia

 

RE-GYREFICATION 

The weather over the past weekend was rare but not unique for California. Clockwise flow around a strong high in the southern Rockies, combined with a counterclockwise flow around a low offshore, to move (advect) subtropical moisture from the northern Sea of Cortez into southern and central California. Aboard Zoop we had a great sail on Sunday, under humid overcast skies. There was no fog or sign of an easterly — as we drove up the hill in the evening around 1900, there was still a stiff westerly blowing — the larger weather pattern had cancelled the Monterey Bay Gyre, or Santa Cruz Eddy. Monday brought more of the same, with the addition of a few sprinkles. 

 

Tuesday dawned bright and clear.  I was interested to see if the SCE re-established itself and how long the transition would take. The answer was, not long.  A strong westerly began mid-morning and continued all day. But inland, temps began to soar (Ben Lomond reached 107° F). Looking at the white caps just outside the Harbor, we got anxious and bent on our # 3 jib. Of course, as soon as it was hoisted, right at 1630, the wind in the Harbor died. Then, at 1700, just as we were casting off, all the windexes on D dock litterally flipped to the northeast. The temperature began to drop and, by the time we had left our fairway, the breeze had built to the point that hoisting the main required us to head towards Johnnies.  Near A dock, Watts Moore was becalmed. Just a few hundred feet away, the Crowsnest flag was standing out stiffly in the westerly. Now that’s a transition.

 

HOW TO WIN SAILBOAT RACES

“Start first and stay in front.”  While it may seem trite, that’s exactly what the winners in all three fleets did Tuesday. In the Spinnaker Fleet, Pegasus made the best start, led at BP and covered the SC-27’s on the way to Gov. Without a sprit, the jibing angles for Double Expresso’s A-kite did not seem deep enough to bring her within striking distance. In the A Fleet, Watts Moore aced the start at the starboard end and clung to Aboriginal like a leach. Both boats laid BP without tacking, but any chance the  Sydney 38 had was erased when the course was shortened. The evening’s outstanding performance was in B Fleet, where Big Mac also aced the start at the pin and went on to finish first boat for boat. She too laid BP without tacking and sailed straight down the rhumb line to Gov. The best start and the shortest distance — a hard combination to beat. But don’t underestimate that MacGregor 26 in moderate air just because she’s a trailer-sailer. Her elapsed time was only 3:34 behind Watts Moore, and she beat the Moore by 1:43 on corrected. As a matter of fact, she sailed the first two legs of the course (BP & GOV) fast enough to correct out over Pegasus too, up to that point, even though the latter was using a spinnaker. 

 

Thank you Paul!

Barry Keeler

Sailing Pair A Dice