JULY 28, 2026 I NEED A BETTER CRYSTAL BALL

July 28, 2026

I NEED A BETTER CRYSTAL BALL

There were predictions for strong breeze for the evening but my first view of the flags at the harbor showed a weak Easterly early in the afternoon.  The strong winds were further out in the bay.  As we left the harbor at 5pm, the westerly wind was coming all the way into the start mark area.  As the clock ticked down, the Easterly was just beginning to form.  We blew the 15 minute horn at 5:45 and proceeded with the normal start time.  Assuming the Easterly would fill in, we called for course E3.

 The poor spinnaker fleet started the race in a very light Easterly. As the Easterly strengthened, the fleets were compressed together.  As we rounded Blacks in Fleet B, the wind seemed to be dying even more so we shortened course to finish at Gov for all three fleets.  Rather than having everyone bobbing in no wind, it would be better to be at the BBQ!  As we round GOV a beautiful Easterly filled in with 10 knots of wind to sail back to the finish.  Once again, shortening the course was not the right decision. I need a better crystal ball.

Spinny tracks can be seen at:

https://www.regattahero.com/mapviewer/?organisation=scyc&passcode=233793&regatta=Tues%20Spinny%20Fleet&race=28.7.2026%2017:50:00&language=en

Fleet A tracks can be reviewed at:

https://www.regattahero.com/mapviewer/?organisation=scyc&passcode=233793&regatta=Tues%20Fleet%20A&race=28.7.2026%2017:55:00&language=en

B Fleet track:

https://www.regattahero.com/mapviewer/?organisation=scyc&passcode=233793&regatta=Tues%20Fleet%20B&race=28.7.2026%2018:00:00&language=en

 

PHRF adjusted results: Course E3   Shortened course distance 1.84nm

PLACE                BOAT                                 PHRF                  ET                         CORRECTED

SPINNY FLEET:

1            INTERLUDE                                   141                      46:19                  41:59

2            ICHIBAN                                         150                      48:16                  43:40

3            GONZO                                            150                      48:20                  43:44

FLEET A:

1            WATTS MOORE                             150                      43:10                  38:34

2            ABORIGINAL                                 33                         41:40                  40:39

3            MAIN SQUEEZE                            72                         46:12                  43:59

4            PERFECT 36                                   144                      51:23                  46:58

5            RIO                                                  141                      53:46                  49:26

FLEET B:

1            YES DEAR                                       243                      50:58                  43:30

2            SIMPATICO                                     165                      48:60                  43:56

3            SAILING PAIR A DICE                  180                      49:57                  44:25

4            NIDAROS                                        118                      48:05                  44:28

5            ABSOLUTE 05                                117                      48:59                  45:23

6            PACIFIC SPIRIT                             165                      51:43                  46:39

7            KICKS                                             180                      53:14                  47:42

8            TOAD                                              150                      52:26                  47:50

ZOOP SCOOP by Paul Tara

QUIZ

Last Week:

Barometric pressure measures:

c) the weight of the atmosphere 

Air molecules have weight. Standard barometric pressure (1 atmosphere) at sea level is around 14.7 PSI.

 

This Week:

 Isobars are like contour lines on a topographic map; air molecules seek to equalize pressure by:

a) staying put

b) flowing downhill to lower pressure

c) flowing uphill to higher pressure

 

THE RACE

Zoop did not sail.  I watched the race in real time on the app. Pretty cool — a lot more entertaining than staring at jib telltales would have been in that breeze.  The story of the evening was the big shift to the right, which caught many headed left initially.  But in A, Main Squeeze clearly had a plan. She started on port behind the fleet, and headed out to the right, rounding  BP ahead of both Aboriginal and her mascot, Watts Moore.  Her plan apparently did not extend to the run however, where she jibed out on port initially, then over-stood the layline to the red ball.  Her lead slipped away as Aboriginal and Watts Moore slid by on the inside, sailing a better angle. 

 

As a general rule of thumb, the strategic factors that result in good upwind legs, are not beneficial downwind, i.e., whichever side of the course is favored upwind, the opposite side is usually favored downwind. Upwind, foot into the shift (header) then tack on it.  Downwind, sail away from the shift, then jibe into it. If in doubt, stay close to the most direct course.

 

In B Fleet the plot was similar, but with some twists. Absolute started on port, went right, and rounded first, but appeared to also over-stand the red ball, allowing Nidaros and the pack to gain.  Then, after passing the red ball, she made a very strange maneuver, which ended up with her doing a 360 — no clue (possible foul exoneration?). This allowed Nidaros to take the lead.  But the Gold Star in B belongs to the Santana 22 Yes Dear.  They ran out of runway and were OCS at the port end, jibed around, restarted on port behind the fleet and followed Absolute out to the right. They rounded BP third, close astern of Nidaros.  On the run, they stuck to the straight and narrow, finishing with the overall shortest distance sailed by quite a bit.  Now, if they could just please edit their RH registration info and enter the correct PHRF?  I believe S-22’s rate slightly slower than 100. (fixed!)

 

Thank you Paul!

I hope to see you sailing next Tuesday!

Barry Keeler

Sailing  Pair A Dice